{"id":21257,"date":"2024-09-30T14:24:59","date_gmt":"2024-09-30T19:24:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bolttech.io\/insights\/%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e8%a1%b0%e9%80%80%e5%8d%b3%e5%b0%86%e5%88%b0%e6%9d%a5%e5%90%97%ef%bc%9f%e4%bf%9d%e9%99%a9%e5%85%ac%e5%8f%b8%e5%a6%82%e4%bd%95%e4%b8%ba%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e4%bd%8e%e8%bf%b7%e5%81%9a\/"},"modified":"2024-10-29T09:12:51","modified_gmt":"2024-10-29T14:12:51","slug":"%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e8%a1%b0%e9%80%80%e5%8d%b3%e5%b0%86%e5%88%b0%e6%9d%a5%e5%90%97%ef%bc%9f%e4%bf%9d%e9%99%a9%e5%85%ac%e5%8f%b8%e5%a6%82%e4%bd%95%e4%b8%ba%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e4%bd%8e%e8%bf%b7%e5%81%9a","status":"publish","type":"insight","link":"https:\/\/bolttech.io\/zh-hans\/insights\/%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e8%a1%b0%e9%80%80%e5%8d%b3%e5%b0%86%e5%88%b0%e6%9d%a5%e5%90%97%ef%bc%9f%e4%bf%9d%e9%99%a9%e5%85%ac%e5%8f%b8%e5%a6%82%e4%bd%95%e4%b8%ba%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e4%bd%8e%e8%bf%b7%e5%81%9a\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u5373\u5c06\u5230\u6765\u5417\uff1f\n\u4fdd\u9669\u516c\u53f8\u5982\u4f55\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f4e\u8ff7\u505a\u597d\u51c6\u5907"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u5728 2009 \u5e74\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5371\u673a\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u518d\u6b21\u5d1b\u8d77\u3002\n\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u67d0\u4e9b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6307\u6807\u2014\u2014\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u8fd8\u662f\u56fd\u5916\u2014\u2014\u90fd\u8868\u660e\u7e41\u8363\u65f6\u4ee3\u53ef\u80fd\u5373\u5c06\u7ed3\u675f\u3002 <\/p>\n\n<p>\u201c\u8fd1\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u5373\u5c06\u7ed3\u675f\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u524d\u666f\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4e16\u754c\u8bb8\u591a\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u533a\u7684\u524d\u666f\u751a\u81f3\u66f4\u7cdf\uff0c\u201c\u675c\u514b\u5927\u5b66\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u6559\u6388 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fuqua.duke.edu\/duke-fuqua-insights\/cfo-survey-december-2018\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u7ea6\u7ff0\u00b7\u683c\u96f7\u5384\u59c6 \uff08John Graham<\/a>\uff09 \u8bf4\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u610f\u5473\u7740\u652f\u51fa\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u4f46\u5e76\u4e0d\u610f\u5473\u7740\u8d22\u4ea7\u548c\u4f24\u4ea1\u98ce\u9669\u964d\u4f4e\u3002\n\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u91c7\u53d6\u63aa\u65bd\u5e94\u5bf9\u5373\u5c06\u5230\u6765\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653e\u7f13\u7684\u4fdd\u9669\u516c\u53f8\u53d1\u73b0\u81ea\u5df1\u5904\u4e8e\u66f4\u6709\u5229\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u62b5\u5fa1\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u6216\u8870\u9000\u3002\n\u4ee5\u4e0b\u662f\u4fdd\u9669\u516c\u53f8\u5982\u4f55\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f4e\u8ff7\u505a\u597d\u51c6\u5907\u3002  <\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2020 \u5e74\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5c55\u671b<\/h2>\n\n<p>\u5728\u5f6d\u535a\u793e\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u4e00\u9879\u8c03\u67e5\u4e2d\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u90fd\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5f88\u9ad8\u3002\n\u201c\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u8d85\u8fc7\u56db\u5206\u4e4b\u4e09\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u9996\u5e2d\u8d22\u52a1\u5b98\u9884\u8ba1\u5230 2020 \u5e74\u5e95\u5c06\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\uff0c\u201d\u5f6d\u535a\u793e\u7684 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2019-02-14\/what-indicators-to-monitor-for-signs-a-u-s-recession-is-coming\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Scott Lanman \u548c Katia Dmitrieva<\/a> \u8bf4\u3002 <\/p>\n\n<p>\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u6b63\u5728\u5173\u6ce8\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\uff0c\u81ea 1948 \u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u9884\u6d4b\u5373\u5c06\u5230\u6765\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u7684\u53ef\u9760\u6307\u6807\uff0cNatixis \u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2019\/02\/20\/a-recession-indicator-with-a-perfect-track-record-over-70-years-is-close-to-being-triggered.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Joseph LaVorgna<\/a> \u8865\u5145\u9053\u3002 LaVorgna \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6bcf\u5f53\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u6bd4\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u5468\u671f\u6027\u4f4e\u70b9\u4e0a\u5347 50 \u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u6216 0.50 \u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u65f6\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5c31\u8fdb\u5165\u8870\u9000\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u867d\u7136\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u4ec5\u6bd4\u4f4e\u70b9\u9ad8\u51fa 30 \u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff0c\u4f46 1 \u6708\u4efd\u7684\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u4ece 11 \u6708\u4efd\u7684 3.7% \u7684\u4f4e\u70b9\u4e0a\u5347\u4e86 4%\u3002\n\u5347\u81f3\u4ec5 4.2% \u53ef\u80fd\u8868\u660e\u53e6\u4e00\u573a\u8870\u9000\u7684\u5f00\u59cb\u3002 <\/p>\n\n<p>\u8bb8\u591a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e13\u5bb6\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5546\u754c\u9886\u8896\u9884\u6d4b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u662f\u660e\u667a\u7684\u3002\n\u675c\u514b\u5927\u5b66\uff08Duke University\uff09\u5546\u5b66\u6559\u6388<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/many-u-s-financial-officers-think-a-recession-will-hit-next-year-11544612460\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u574e\u8d1d\u5c14\u00b7\u54c8\u7ef4\uff08Campbell Harvey<\/a>[subscription required]\uff09\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u6240\u6709\u8981\u7d20\u90fd\u5df2\u51c6\u5907\u5c31\u7eea\uff1a\u4ece2009\u5e746\u6708\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\u51cf\u5f31\u6269\u5f20\u2014\u2014\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u5341\u5e74\u524d\u2014\u2014\u52a0\u5267\u4e86\u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u6291\u5236\u589e\u957f\u7684\u4fdd\u62a4\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u66f2\u7ebf\u4e0d\u7965\u5730\u8d8b\u5e73\uff0c\u800c\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u66f2\u7ebf\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb50\u5e74\u4e2d\u51c6\u786e\u9884\u6d4b\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u3002 <\/p>\n\n<p>\u5bf9\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e5f\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e13\u5bb6\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u3002\n2019 \u5e74 1 \u6708\uff0cBuildFax \u9996\u5e2d\u6267\u884c\u5b98 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.propertycasualty360.com\/2019\/01\/31\/decrease-in-single-family-authorization-points-to-possible-u-s-recession\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Holly Tachovsky<\/a> \u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u53ef\u7528\u4e8e\u8ddf\u8e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u7684\u5355\u6237\u4f4f\u5b85\u6388\u6743\u6709\u6240\u4e0b\u964d\u3002 <\/p>\n\n<p>\u201c\u867d\u7136\u8fd9\u53ea\u662f\u6307\u6807\u8fde\u7eed\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u6708\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u79cd\u8f6c\u53d8\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u81ea 2013 \u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u7ecf\u5386\u7684\u767d\u70ed\u5316\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u5f62\u6210\u9c9c\u660e\u5bf9\u6bd4\uff0c\u201dTachovsky \u8bf4\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5e76\u975e\u6240\u6709\u4e13\u5bb6\u90fd\u540c\u610f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u5373\u5c06\u5230\u6765\u3002\n\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6469\u6839\u5927\u901a\uff08JPMorgan Chase\uff09\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.housingwire.com\/articles\/48357-jpmorgan-chase-chief-economist-bets-against-2020-recession\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Anthony Chan<\/a>\u6839\u636e\u4ed6\u81ea\u5df1\u5bf9\u4f4f\u623f\u503a\u52a1\u548c\u4f4f\u623f\u589e\u957f\u7684\u8003\u5bdf\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b2019\u5e74\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7387\u4e3a2%\u3002\n\u867d\u7136 Chan \u8868\u793a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5728\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5e74\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a 2019 \u5e74\u6216 2020 \u5e74\u51fa\u73b0\u8870\u9000\u7684\u51e0\u7387\u7ea6\u4e3a 15%\u3002  <\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/bolttech.io\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/business-women-1024x683.jpg\" alt=\"&#x4E24;&#x4F4D;&#x4E9A;&#x6D32;&#x5973;&#x5546;&#x4EBA;&#x53D1;&#x8A00;\" class=\"wp-image-6038\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bolttech.io\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/business-women-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/bolttech.io\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/business-women-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/bolttech.io\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/business-women-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/bolttech.io\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/business-women.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4fdd\u9669\u516c\u53f8\u9700\u8981\u8003\u8651\u4ec0\u4e48<\/h2>\n\n<p>\u5728\u4fdd\u9669\u516c\u53f8\u4e2d\uff0c\u5bf9\u5373\u5c06\u5230\u6765\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\u5f88\u9ad8\u3002\n\u5728\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u9ad8\u76db\u8d44\u4ea7\u7ba1\u7406\u4fdd\u9669\u8c03\u67e5\u4e2d\uff0c41%\u7684\u4fdd\u9669\u516c\u53f8\u8868\u793a\u4ed6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a2020\u5e74\u62162021\u5e74\u5c06\u51fa\u73b0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\uff0c <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pionline.com\/article\/20190424\/ONLINE\/190429942\/most-insurers-believe-us-will-enter-recession-within-next-2-years-8211-survey\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u8a79\u59c6\u65af\u00b7\u5eb7\u6258\u74e6<\/a> \u5728\u517b\u8001\u91d1\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u62a5\u544a\u3002\n\u4fdd\u9669\u516c\u53f8\u8fd8\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5e74\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u673a\u4f1a\u4f1a\u51cf\u5c11\u3002  <\/p>\n\n<p>\u201c\u4fdd\u9669\u516c\u53f8\u9884\u6d4b\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u5373\u5c06\u5230\u6765\uff0c\u4f46\u4eca\u5e74\u4e0d\u4f1a\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7ee7\u7eed\u6295\u5165\u8d44\u672c\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u627f\u62c5\u98ce\u9669\u65f6\u66f4\u52a0\u8c28\u614e\uff0c\u201c\u9ad8\u76db\u7684 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.barrons.com\/articles\/recession-forecast-51556206017\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Michael Siegel<\/a> \u89e3\u91ca\u9053\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7ecf\u5e38\u6295\u8d44\u503a\u5238\u7684\u4fdd\u9669\u516c\u53f8\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u5bf9\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u6216\u516c\u53f8\u503a\u52a1\u8fdd\u7ea6\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u9700\u8981\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u9996\u8981\u9879\u76ee\u3002\n\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u60f3\u8981\u5ea6\u8fc7\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u7684\u4fdd\u9669\u516c\u53f8\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u66f4\u5e7f\u9614\u7684\u89c6\u91ce\u662f\u5fc5\u4e0d\u53ef\u5c11\u7684\u3002 <\/p>\n\n<p>\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4fe1\u5fc3\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5065\u5eb7\u4e2d\u8d77\u7740\u91cd\u8981\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u662f\u8bb8\u591a\u4fdd\u9669\u516c\u53f8\u5f80\u5f80\u5ffd\u89c6\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\nDoubleLine Capital LP \u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u517c\u9996\u5e2d\u6267\u884c\u5b98 <a href=\"http:\/\/fortune.com\/2019\/02\/16\/when-is-the-next-recession-coming\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Jeffrey Gundlach<\/a> \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u72b6\u51b5\u7684\u60c5\u7eea\u5bf9\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u884c\u4e3a\u6709\u6df1\u8fdc\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5f97\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4fe1\u5fc3\u6210\u4e3a\u672a\u6765\u7ecf\u6d4e\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u5173\u952e\u6307\u6807\u3002 <\/p>\n\n<p>\u76ee\u524d\uff0cGundlach \u6307\u51fa\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u60c5\u7eea\u4e0e\u672a\u6765\u9884\u671f\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u5dee\u8ddd\u3002\n\u5c0f\u4f01\u4e1a\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4e5f\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5931\u53bb\u4e86\u4fe1\u5fc3\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0d\u4ec5\u53ef\u4ee5\u9884\u6d4b\u5373\u5c06\u5230\u6765\u7684\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u52a9\u957f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u3002 <\/p>\n\n<p>\u67d0\u4e9b\u653f\u6cbb\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u52a0\u901f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u52bf\u5934\u4e0b\u6ed1\u3002\n2019 \u5e74 1 \u6708\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u987e\u95ee\u517c\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u7814\u7a76\u5458 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baltimoresun.com\/news\/maryland\/politics\/bs-md-recession-forecast-20190116-story.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u4e39\u00b7\u6000\u7279 \uff08Dan White<\/a> \uff09 \u5728\u9a6c\u91cc\u5170\u5dde\u53c2\u8bae\u9662\u9884\u7b97\u548c\u7a0e\u52a1\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u4f5c\u8bc1\u65f6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u957f\u671f\u505c\u6446\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u3002\n\u5173\u7a0e\u7684\u5b9e\u65bd\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u52a0\u901f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u7684\u5230\u6765\uff0cCNN \u7684 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2018\/10\/18\/investing\/protectionism-china-tariffs-trade-markets-economy-recession\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Paul R. La Monica<\/a> \u8865\u5145\u9053\u3002  <\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/bolttech.io\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/graphs-charts-1024x683.jpg\" alt=\"&#x4EE5;&#x540C;&#x4E8B;&#x4E3A;&#x80CC;&#x666F;&#x7684;&#x5E26;&#x6709;&#x56FE;&#x8868;&#x548C;&#x73BB;&#x7483;&#x676F;&#x7684;&#x7EB8;\" class=\"wp-image-6048\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bolttech.io\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/graphs-charts-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/bolttech.io\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/graphs-charts-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/bolttech.io\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/graphs-charts-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/bolttech.io\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/graphs-charts.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4fdd\u9669\u516c\u53f8\u5982\u4f55\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f4e\u8ff7\u505a\u597d\u51c6\u5907<\/h2>\n\n<p>\u6bcf\u4e2a\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u90fd\u4f1a\u611f\u53d7\u5230\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u4e25\u91cd\u6216\u6301\u4e45\u65f6\u3002\n\u5e78\u8fd0\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4fdd\u9669\u516c\u53f8\u73b0\u5728\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u4fdd\u6301\u5176\u4f18\u52bf\u5e76\u5de9\u56fa\u52a3\u52bf\u6765\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f4e\u8ff7\u505a\u597d\u51c6\u5907\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u5728\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u65f6\u671f\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u5730\u8868\u73b0\u3002 <\/p>\n\n<p>\u300a\u54c8\u4f5b\u5546\u4e1a\u8bc4\u8bba\u300b\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458 <a href=\"https:\/\/hbr.org\/2019\/04\/companies-need-to-prepare-for-the-next-economic-downturn\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u9a6c\u4e01\u00b7\u91cc\u592b\u65af\uff08Martin Reeves\uff09\u3001\u51ef\u6587\u00b7\u60e0\u7279\u514b\uff08Kevin Whitaker\uff09\u548c\u514b\u91cc\u65af\u8482\u5b89\u00b7\u51ef\u7279\u5c14\u65af\uff08Christian Ketels<\/a> \uff09\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u671f\u95f4\u8868\u73b0\u6700\u597d\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u6709\u51e0\u79cd\u5171\u540c\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u3002 \u4ed6\u4eec\u91c7\u53d6\u79ef\u6781\u63aa\u65bd\u505a\u597d\u51c6\u5907\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u957f\u671f\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5e76\u4e13\u6ce8\u4e8e\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u4e2d\u4fdd\u6301\u589e\u957f\u2014\u2014\u5c3d\u7ba1\u901f\u5ea6\u8f83\u6162\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u201c\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u505a\u51c6\u5907\u7684\u6700\u6709\u6548\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u52a0\u5f3a\u5f53\u4eca\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u8fd0\u8425\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u201dBanner Associates\uff0c Inc. \u7684\u4eba\u529b\u8d44\u6e90\u603b\u76d1 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shrm.org\/hr-today\/news\/hr-magazine\/spring2019\/pages\/how-to-prepare-for-a-recession.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Sarah Meusburger<\/a> \u8bf4\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>Meusburger \u5efa\u8bae\u91c7\u7528\u4e00\u79cd\u6301\u7eed\u6539\u8fdb\u7684\u6587\u5316\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u6587\u5316\u7ed3\u5408\u4e86 Reeves\u3001Whitaker \u548c Ketels \u5728\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u53d1\u73b0\u7684\u76f8\u540c\u884c\u4e3a\uff1a\u4e00\u79cd\u79ef\u6781\u4e3b\u52a8\u7684\u957f\u671f\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e1a\u52a1\u589e\u957f\u548c\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5ba2\u6237\u5173\u7cfb\u5728\u7cbe\u76ca\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027<\/h2>\n\n<p>\u5ba2\u6237\u5173\u7cfb\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u5bfb\u6c42\u5ea6\u8fc7\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\nNewport Board Group \u8463\u4e8b\u603b\u7ecf\u7406 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/allbusiness\/2018\/12\/27\/economic-recession-preparation-business-owners\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Michael Evans<\/a> \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8981\u5728\u4efb\u4f55\u7ecf\u6d4e\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\u84ec\u52c3\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\u8981\u786e\u5b9a\u6700\u5fe0\u8bda\u548c\u5229\u6da6\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u5ba2\u6237\uff0c\u5e76\u4fdd\u62a4\u516c\u53f8\u4e0e\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002 <\/p>\n\n<p>\u201c\u5982\u679c\u4e1a\u52a1\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4e0e\u5176\u5168\u9762\u524a\u51cf\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u4e0d\u5982\u51c6\u5907\u597d\u8f6c\u79fb\u8d44\u6e90\u4ee5\u7559\u4f4f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9ad8\u5229\u6da6\u5ba2\u6237\uff0c\u201dEvans \u8bf4\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u54c1\u724c\u9886\u5bfc\u529b\u4e13\u5bb6\u3001\u300aWhat Great Brands Do\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\u7684\u4f5c\u8005 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/deniselyohn\/2018\/11\/14\/3-ways-to-prepare-your-business-for-the-next-recession\/#571541e17155\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Denise Lee Yohn<\/a> \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u52a0\u5f3a\u5ba2\u6237\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u4e13\u6ce8\u4e8e\u4f7f\u5185\u90e8\u6587\u5316\u4e0e\u5916\u90e8\u54c1\u724c\u4fdd\u6301\u4e00\u81f4\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u201c\u4e3a\u4e86\u62b5\u6d88\u60a8\u4e0e\u7ade\u4e89\u5bf9\u624b\u4ea7\u54c1\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6700\u7ec8\u4ef7\u683c\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u60a8\u73b0\u5728\u5e94\u8be5\u63d0\u9ad8\u54c1\u724c\u7684\u611f\u77e5\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u60a8\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f4e\u8ff7\u65f6\u671f\u5229\u7528\u8be5\u54c1\u724c\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u201dYohn \u8bf4\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u4f7f\u54c1\u724c\u5f62\u8c61\u4e0e\u5185\u90e8\u6587\u5316\u4fdd\u6301\u4e00\u81f4\u53ef\u4ee5\u521b\u9020\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u4f7f\u4fdd\u9669\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u54c1\u724c\u4e0e\u4f17\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u5e76\u9f13\u52b1\u5ba2\u6237\u9009\u62e9\u60a8\u7684\u54c1\u724c\u5e76\u4fdd\u6301\u5fe0\u8bda\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p><em>\u56fe\u7247\u63d0\u4f9b\uff1aAndriy Popov\/\u00a9123RF.com\u3001primagefactory\/\u00a9123RF.com\u3001Dmitriy Shirosonov\/\u00a9123RF.com<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u5728 2009 \u5e74\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5371\u673a\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u518d\u6b21\u5d1b\u8d77\u3002 \u7136\u800c\uff0c\u67d0\u4e9b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6307\u6807\u2014\u2014\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u8fd8\u662f\u56fd\u5916\u2014\u2014\u90fd\u8868\u660e\u7e41\u8363\u65f6 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":6029,"template":"","insight-category":[],"class_list":["post-21257","insight","type-insight","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bolttech.io\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/insight\/21257","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bolttech.io\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/insight"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bolttech.io\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/insight"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bolttech.io\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6029"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bolttech.io\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21257"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"insight-category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bolttech.io\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/insight-category?post=21257"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}